Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican margin 40-45% at a 28% chance, ahead of Republican margin 35-40% at 26% and Republican margin 30-35% at 18%.
At most one answer is YES. The answers cover the margin of victory in the 2026 general election for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (AR-01) in the US House of Representatives, expected to be held on 3 November 2026. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes in that election. Each Republican margin answer is YES if the Republican Party's nominee wins with a margin inside that range; Democrat Wins is YES if the Democratic Party's nominee wins, by any margin. Independents and candidates of other parties count for neither party, and if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the new nominee represents that party. A margin exactly on the line between two ranges counts for the higher range. If any other candidate wins, every answer is NO. If the Democratic and Republican nominees tie for the most votes, YES goes to the lowest-margin answer of the nominee whose last name as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically (Republican margin 0-15% for the Republican, Democrat Wins for the Democrat). If one of those nominees ties for first with any other candidate, that nominee's lowest-margin answer is YES; if only other candidates tie for first, every answer is NO. The result follows the official vote count once it is made official; a recount started before then keeps the outcome open until the recount ends and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. The official results published by the Arkansas state authority that certifies the election decide; overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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