Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
