Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 22:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
YES requires the UK’s Clerk of the Crown, acting in Chancery to issue a writ for a parliamentary constituency by-election after 14 September 2026 at 21:47:27.580494 UTC and no later than 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Its issuance must also be confirmed within that window. NO applies if those conditions are not met. The earlier writ concerning Holborn and St Pancras is excluded; merely holding a vote or announcing plans without a qualifying writ is insufficient. Primary evidence is official UK government information, including Parliament and the local authority administering the election. Consistent accounts from reliable news outlets are also admissible.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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