Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:40 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the 2026 US House election in Connecticut's 3rd congressional district, expected on 3 November 2026, ends in a Democratic win by under 5 points; any other result gives NO. The winning margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. Democratic and Republican mean the nominees of those parties; independent candidates fill neither slot, and if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement counts. If first place is tied, among the Democratic and Republican nominees the one whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically is selected; a party nominee is selected ahead of any other tied candidate, and if only other candidates share first place, NO. The selected nominee receives the lowest margin band, 0 to under 5 percentage points. If the Democratic nominee is selected by that tie order, YES; if the Republican nominee or only other candidates are selected, NO. The certified official vote count decides; if a recount begins before certification, the outcome waits until the recount ends and the count is official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The certified result from the state election authority decides, with overwhelming agreement among independent election reports as a fallback.
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