Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:21 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 99% chance and No at 1%.
YES if the Democratic Party takes the U.S. House seat for GA-05 (Georgia's 5th congressional district) at the 2026 midterm elections, held on 3 November 2026; if the seat goes to anyone counted for another party, NO. The answer is a party, not a person: a change of candidate does not matter as long as the winner counts for the Democratic Party. The winner's party is the affiliation shown on the ballot, or otherwise clearly identifiable, at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called; a winner listed as neither Democrat nor Republican counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they would caucus with at that moment. Broad agreement among reputable election reports decides; if that reporting is ambiguous, only the official U.S. government result published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) decides. There is no fixed settlement deadline: voting ends when polls close on the evening of 3 November 2026, local time in the district, and this prediction waits for the race calls described above, however long counting, recounts or any runoff take.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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