Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES if the overall count of valid votes recorded in the 2026 general election for Governor of California, held on 3 November 2026, is at least 14,000,000 but below 14,500,000; otherwise NO. All votes certified for candidates or for non-candidate options count, while blank or invalidated ballots do not; if a ranked-choice or preferential system is used, the first-round total counts. A total landing exactly on the line between two bands belongs to the higher band. If the result is still not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the total is treated as below 10.5 million, so only the lowest band is YES. Certified results from the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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