Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Decrease by 25 basis points at a 87% chance, ahead of No change at 9% and Decrease by 50 basis points or more at 2%.
This prediction is about the Selic rate target set by the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) of the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) at its meeting scheduled for 3–4 November 2026. Compare the target announced at that meeting with the target in force just before it, in basis points; the answer covering that change is YES and every other answer is NO. An unchanged target selects No change. If the target is ever expressed as a range, use the change in its upper end. A move smaller than 25 basis points counts as 25 in its direction; a bigger move is rounded to the nearest multiple of 25, and a value exactly halfway between two multiples is rounded away from zero (for example, 37.5 counts as 50). The two 50-or-more answers include any larger move in their direction. If the meeting is moved to a later date that still comes before the next scheduled COPOM meeting begins, the decision of the moved meeting counts. If it is cancelled, or no decision is announced before the next scheduled meeting begins, No change is YES. Rate changes made outside this meeting, such as an emergency move, are ignored. The decision is normally announced on the evening of 4 November 2026, Brasília local time (late afternoon ET). The official COPOM statement published by the Central Bank of Brazil decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
