Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
Retatrutide is a triple-agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly and is currently being studied for obesity, fatty liver disease, type 2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and other conditions. This market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration grants either full or conditional approval, by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET, to any Eli Lilly drug product whose active ingredient is retatrutide, including under any brand name or identifier such as LY3437943, for any use. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” For the purposes of this market, an approval means any of the following: - for a new drug, FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA); - for an already marketed drug seeking a new indication, FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for that indication; - for a generic drug, FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA); - for a biosimilar, FDA approval of a 351(k) application. Qualifying approvals include standard approval, accelerated approval, approval with a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), and approval with restricted distribution or indication limits, excluding compassionate use or expanded access programs. The following do not qualify: - approvable letters requiring additional action before approval; - tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration; - FDA requests for additional information or studies; - extensions of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates; - approval solely for compassionate use or expanded access; - approval only for export or for use outside the United States; - Emergency Use Authorization without full approval; and - Complete Response Letters stating that the application cannot be approved in its current form. If the listed drug is approved within the market timeframe, the market resolves to “Yes” even if an Advisory Committee previously voted against approval or the approval is later withdrawn. Conditional approvals may still qualify if they include post-marketing requirements or commitments. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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