Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 62% chance and No at 38%.
YES applies if any AI model achieves an accuracy of 60% or more on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, as shown on the official HLE leaderboard at agi.safe.ai. Accuracy means only the value labelled HLE Accuracy, or a clearly equivalent measure if the site later renames or reorganises how it presents the data; Calibration Error and every other displayed metric are ignored. Apart from the fallback below, scores shown anywhere else, such as on other leaderboards or in announcements by AI developers, do not count. If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable, the prediction stays open until the data can be read again. If it is still unavailable after the deadline, or is confirmed to be gone for good, official HLE results from another place can be used instead; if there is no such official alternative, the answer is NO. NO also applies if no model reaches 60% by the deadline.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
