Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:17 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if OpenAI owns the model in first place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Overall category) when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; otherwise NO. The check uses the Rank column of the Leaderboard tab in the no-style-control view, with style control switched off (Adjustments: None) and the list filtered to Models. Models marked AutoEval at check time are ignored, even if a rank or score is shown for them. Models are ordered by leaderboard rank first. If two or more models share a rank, the higher Arena score wins, using the unrounded score values listed under the table; if they are still level, the company whose name comes first alphabetically ranks higher (Google ahead of SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the prediction stays open and is settled at the first check after it is back online. If the first-placed model belongs to any other company, or the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, the answer is NO. The arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
