Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:47 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 78% chance and No at 22%.
This prediction concerns the House majority for the Congress elected at the 2026 US midterms. The cutoff is 4 Nov 2026 at 23:59 ET (America/New_York). YES applies if AP has either announced which party controls the House or made enough district calls to give one party 218 seats under the following test. Independent candidates do not count toward any party. For the district-call test, start a one-hour observation at the call that takes a party to 218 standing wins. If a retraction during that hour takes it below 218, that triggering call fails the test. If the test succeeds, the qualifying time is the original 218th call, even if the observation ends after the cutoff. A subsequent retraction cannot undo a completed test. An explicit AP announcement of House control qualifies immediately, and later withdrawal does not reverse it. NO applies if neither route qualifies by the cutoff. Election delays, uncalled or tied races and cancellations do not extend that deadline or replace the AP-call requirement. Use AP's own election coverage and timestamped calls. If the direct AP page is unavailable, an archived AP record or AP report carried by a member outlet may document those same calls and their original times; another organisation's independent projection never substitutes for AP.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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