Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:54 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 64% chance and No at 36%.
YES only if Morena ranks first by seats won in the 25-seat state Congress of Tlaxcala, Mexico, in the state legislative election scheduled for 6 June 2027; otherwise NO. Parties are ranked by seats won. If parties are level on seats, the one whose proportional-representation list received more valid votes ranks higher; if they are still level, the listed party whose name comes earlier in the alphabet ranks higher (the listed parties are Morena, PAN, PRI, PVEM, PT and MC). Each district seat counts for the party that the final official results attach the winning deputy to, following the coalition or common-candidacy agreement on file with the state electoral institute, and never for a coalition as a whole; each proportional seat is credited to the party it is allocated to. Changes of party or parliamentary group after the election are ignored. If a party not listed here ranks first, NO. If the result is not definitively known by 31 March 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Broad agreement among reputable news reports decides; where that leaves doubt, only the official results reported by the authorities of Tlaxcala and of Mexico decide, including the state electoral institute ITE (itetlax.org.mx).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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