Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic lead from 30 to under 35 percentage points at a 30% chance, ahead of Democratic lead from 35 to under 40 percentage points at 24% and Democratic lead from 25 to under 30 percentage points at 24%.
YES is the displayed answer that matches both the party of the first-placed candidate and the size of the winning margin in the 2026 election for the US House of Representatives in New York's 25th congressional district (NY-25), currently expected on 3 November 2026. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates placed first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes in the race. The Democratic and Republican answers stand for those parties' official nominees; an independent or third-party candidate stands for neither, and if a named nominee is replaced before election day, that party's answers follow the replacement nominee. The answer that shows only a Republican win covers every margin by which the Republican nominee finishes first. A margin exactly on the line between two brackets goes to the higher bracket. If the Democratic and Republican nominees tie for the most valid votes, the smallest-margin bracket of whichever of them has the surname, as printed on the ballot, that comes first alphabetically is YES, even though the answers are shown by party. If one of these nominees ties for first place with a candidate who is neither nominee, that nominee's smallest-margin bracket is YES. If the most valid votes go only to candidates who are neither the Democratic nor the Republican nominee, including a tie among such candidates, every answer is NO. The result counts once the vote count is official; if a recount begins before then, wait until it is finished and the result is official. If no definitive result is known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. The official result from the state authority that certifies the election decides; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one answer is YES; all others are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
