Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
Resolves YES if, at any time from 23:45:32 UTC on 18 September 2026 up to 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026 (04:59 UTC on 1 January 2027), an early election to the Inatsisartut is formally called. Otherwise NO. Calling one means the Inatsisartut is formally dissolved, or a vote for every seat in that assembly is otherwise put on the calendar under Greenlandic rules ahead of the term's regular end. Saying that an election is intended, a vote of no confidence that fails, or the governing coalition falling apart does not settle this YES on its own; the formal step itself has to be taken inside the window. Decided on official information from Greenland's government, Naalakkersuisut, and from the Inatsisartut (official source); broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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