Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 10% chance and No at 90%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any court in the United States issues a ruling that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct or illegal manipulation of votes occurred in at least one US state during the 2020 United States presidential election, before 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ruling is defined as any written order, judgement, opinion or decision, including per curiam opinions, summary orders and sua sponte rulings issued by a relevant court. Unwritten oral rulings, tentative rulings, settlements, orders to show cause, or other procedures which do not constitute a finalised ruling will not count. A qualifying ruling of fraud must find that widespread, intentional voter fraud or vote manipulation occurred during the 2020 United States presidential election. Procedural irregularities, administrative errors, or isolated rulings on individual cases of voter fraud will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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