Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market resolves YES if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling KRG party, coalition or executive official, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and claims governing authority over specified territory inside Iraq by January 1, 2027, at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves NO. A qualifying public announcement is enough for YES, even if the claimed authority is never actually established, maintained or internationally recognized. To qualify, the declaration must clearly state that the organization or its leadership is establishing an independent political entity separate from Iraq and is claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area that was previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined, but it must be at least partly specified. A majority of the territory claimed must be within Iraq’s internationally recognized borders as they existed when the market was created. Resolution source: a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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