Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:38 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is December 31 at a 49% chance, ahead of August 15 at <1% and August 31 at <1%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if xAI’s Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” For this market, “Grok 5” means either a model explicitly named Grok 5 or a model clearly identified as xAI’s next flagship generation after Grok 4. Models that remain part of the Grok 4 generation — including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar versions — do not qualify. Specialized or lower-cost variants also do not count unless xAI explicitly brands them as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly presents them as the next flagship Grok generation. To qualify, the model must actually be launched and accessible to the general public. Open beta access or open rolling waitlist signups count, but a closed beta or any form of private access does not. The release must be clearly announced by xAI as publicly available, or otherwise be publicly accessible and explicitly labeled as such on xAI’s official website. Placeholder labels, mistaken version names, or website text that does not correspond to a model genuinely available to the public will not qualify. Resolution is based primarily on official information from xAI, with additional confirmation from a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
