Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Mariana Rodríguez Cantú at a 29% chance, ahead of Adrián de la Garza S. at 25% and Waldo Fernández González at 16%.
YES goes to the listed candidate who wins the election for Governor of the Mexican state of Nuevo León, which is currently scheduled for 6 June 2027. Only the person elected in that vote counts; anyone serving merely as interim or caretaker governor does not. If the winner is not one of the listed candidates, or if the result is not definitively known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET (for example because the vote is postponed), every listed candidate is NO. At most one listed candidate can be YES; all others are NO. Broad agreement among reputable news reports decides who won. If that reporting is unclear, only the official results published by government bodies of Nuevo León and of Mexico decide, such as Nuevo León's state electoral institute and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
