Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if Moonshot owns the model in first place on the Code Arena | WebDev leaderboard at arena.ai (arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev, Overall view, filtered to Models) when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; otherwise NO. Models marked “AutoEval” at that check are left out, even if they show a rank or a score. Models are ordered by the number in the Rank column; models sharing a rank are ordered by which one appears higher on the leaderboard, and if that still leaves a tie, by alphabetical order of the companies named as answers in this event (so Google would come before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the prediction stays open and the first check after it is back online is used. If the leaderboard is gone for good, or the first-place model belongs to another company, the answer is NO. The arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
