Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 20:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 75% chance and No at 25%.
On 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the Agent Arena leaderboard on arena.ai (arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) is checked with the Labs filter selected. Every company shown there takes part in the ranking. Models marked AutoEval at that moment are left out, even if they display a rank or score. Companies are ordered first by their Lab Rank, read from the Rank column of the Labs view. If that order is ambiguous or not available, companies are instead ordered by their best-placed model in the leaderboard's Models view; models sharing a rank are ordered by which one appears higher on the leaderboard, and any tie still left is broken alphabetically by company name as shown on the arena.ai leaderboard (for example, Google ahead of SpaceXAI). YES if OpenAI is in second place under this ordering; any other company in second place means NO. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the prediction stays open and is settled on the first check after it is back online; if it becomes permanently unavailable, NO. Official information from the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
