Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices December 31 at a 5% chance and June 30 at 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Assimi Goïta's departure as President of Mali is officially announced by 05:59 CET/CEST on the morning after the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered announced when Assimi Goïta, the Government of Mali, or their authorised representatives publicly and definitively announce that Goïta has ceased or will cease to hold the position of President of Mali. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements framed as announcing a departure intended to take effect within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g. neither "I will leave office in 2 years" nor "I will not be in office forever" would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorised representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position before the scheduled end of that term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, this market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the same cut-off. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Assimi Goïta and the Government of Mali; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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