Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 6-9% at a 24% chance, ahead of Democrat 12-15% at 20% and Democrat 9-12% at 16%.
Use the certified 2026 VA-02 U.S. House vote. Calculate each candidate’s share of all valid ballots and take the absolute percentage-point gap between first and second place. Democratic- and Republican-nominated candidates are the only party options; independent candidates do not represent either party. Exactly one listed party interval is YES: the party and interval containing that gap. An exact boundary goes into the higher interval. For a first-place tie, use the lower interval for the listed candidate whose ballot-listed surname comes first alphabetically; a listed candidate beats an unlisted candidate, while a tie among unlisted candidates is Other. If a party-labelled candidate is involved, use that candidate’s ballot-listed surname. A replacement nominee before election day keeps the party slot. Use the official vote count once it is made official; a recount initiated before then keeps the prediction open until the recount is complete and the vote is official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 23:59 ET, choose Other. The Virginia certifying authority is primary, with broad, well-supported independent reporting as a check.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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