Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This market resolves YES if, at any point before 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) holds the highest score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise it resolves NO. A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation — a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers — clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process. Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, set to default with style control on, will be used to resolve this market. If two or more models are tied for the top Arena score at any point, this market resolves YES if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of unavailability.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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