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As of 12 October 2026, 11:09 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 16% chance and No at 84%.
YES if the 2026 US House election in Connecticut's 3rd congressional district, expected on 3 November 2026, ends in a Democratic win by 35 points or more; any other result gives NO. The winning margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A margin sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. Democratic and Republican mean the nominees of those parties; independent candidates fill neither slot, and if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement counts. If first place is tied, the result is treated as the lowest band for one tied candidate: among the Democratic and Republican nominees, the one whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically; a party nominee goes ahead of any other tied candidate, and if only other candidates share first place, NO. The certified official vote count decides; if a recount begins before certification, the outcome waits until the recount ends and the count is official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The certified result from the state election authority decides, with overwhelming agreement among independent election reports as a fallback.
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