Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES if Moonshot holds second place among AI companies on the Math view of the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026, with the Labs filter applied and style control turned off (Adjustments: None); if a different company is second, NO. Models flagged AutoEval at that moment are left out, no matter what rank or score they display. Companies are sorted by the Lab Rank column. If that column is ambiguous or not shown, each company is placed by its best-ranked model in the Models view of the same leaderboard with the same setting; models sharing a rank are separated by Arena score, including the unrounded values in the data under the table, and any tie that remains is broken alphabetically by company name (for instance Google ahead of SpaceXAI). If any other company is second, Moonshot is NO. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the first successful check after it comes back online decides; if it is gone for good, NO. The arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard is the deciding record.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
