Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This market resolves YES if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027. Otherwise it resolves NO. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services limited to Tesla employees or to a restricted test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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