Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This market resolves Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty, on or before January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
