Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
YES applies if Moonshot AI makes a Kimi K4 model available to the general public by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Any model in the Kimi K4 family counts, including one explicitly named Kimi K4 (for example Kimi K4.0), as does a model recognised as Moonshot AI's new flagship model or as the successor to Kimi K3.0, following the same step up as from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. Incremental versions such as Kimi K3.5 do not count. The model must be launched and open to the public, which includes an open beta or an open rolling waitlist that anyone can join; a closed beta or any other private access is not enough. Moonshot AI must either clearly announce that the model is available to the general public, or make it publicly accessible and explicitly label it on its official website. Labelling errors, placeholder text or version names on the website that do not match a model the public can actually use do not count. NO applies otherwise. Official Moonshot AI information is primary; consistent reporting by reputable tech news outlets may also be used to verify it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
