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As of 12 October 2026, 20:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
For the New South Wales state election on 27 March 2027, count all Legislative Council seats after the election, including continuing members whose terms do not expire. YES if One Nation ranks first under the ranking below; otherwise NO. Liberal–National combines every seat held by the Liberal Party and the Nationals and combines their valid first-preference votes, regardless of parliamentary cooperation. Rank the eight listed parties or coalitions—Labor, Liberal–National, Greens, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice, Libertarian, and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers—by Legislative Council seats. For equal seat totals, use valid first-preference votes in this Council election, then alphabetical order of the listed names. Independent members are not a party or coalition, are not added together and cannot take first place. If a party or coalition outside the eight ranks first, the answer is NO. If results remain unsettled by 31 July 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Reputable news consensus decides; if unclear, use official NSW Electoral Commission figures at elections.nsw.gov.au.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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