Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:36 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is December 31, 2027 at a 70% chance, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 31% and December 31, 2026 at 3%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” The result of any launch will be confirmed using official video published by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), along with secondary video feeds and/or written reporting if needed. Any anomaly that occurs after launch, including an explosion, will not affect resolution. Any renaming of the satellite or use of a different vehicle will also have no effect on the outcome of this market.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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