Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices David Pan (R) at a 4% chance and Lou Correa (D) at 96%.
Covers the 2026 general election for California's 46th congressional district (CA-46) seat in the US House of Representatives, held on 3 November 2026 (polls in California close at 8:00 PM Pacific Time). Each answer stands for a party, not for the person named in it: 'Republican Party (David Pan)' is YES if the candidate who wins the seat is a Republican, and 'Democratic Party (Lou Correa)' is YES if the winner is a Democrat, even if the winner is not the named candidate. At most one answer can be YES. The winner's party is set by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation at the moment every 2026 House race has been conclusively called. A winner without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts for the party they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment; if the winner cannot be assigned to either party this way, both answers are NO. There is no fixed cutoff date or time for this result. Matching race calls from major news organisations decide; if they are unclear or conflict, the official results reported by the US Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
