Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if Daniel Barreda Pavón is elected governor of the Mexican state of Campeche in the election scheduled for 6 June 2027; otherwise NO. An interim, substitute or caretaker governor does not count. If the winner is someone other than Daniel Barreda Pavón, or if the result is not definitively known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this prediction settles NO. Consistent reporting from several reputable news outlets decides; if there is any ambiguity, the official results from the authorities of Campeche and Mexico decide, including the Electoral Institute of the State of Campeche (IEEC) and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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