Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully lifts off from its launch pad on or before January 1, 2027, at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” A qualifying launch only requires a successful liftoff from the pad. What happens afterward does not affect resolution, so any later anomaly — including an explosion, loss of vehicle, or failed ascent — does not change a “Yes” outcome once liftoff has occurred. Resolution will be based primarily on official video published by Rocket Lab, including material from Rocket Lab’s official YouTube channel. Secondary video feeds and written reporting may also be used if needed to confirm the launch. If the Neutron vehicle is renamed or rebranded, that will not affect resolution.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
