Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 19% chance and No at 81%.
YES applies when, before 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Iran announces and starts collecting a toll, tariff, fee, or similar payment that covered commercial vessels cannot avoid when transiting or entering the Strait of Hormuz. The policy may cover all vessels or a defined subgroup; an isolated demand is insufficient. Ordinary port or customs charges, sanctions costs, shipping surcharges, and charges imposed by Oman, the UAE, insurers, private firms, or other non-Iranian bodies do not count unless Iran jointly charges, receives, or controls them. Both an Iranian government announcement and credible evidence that collection began are required. Use Iranian official information, with broad agreement among reputable reports as fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
