Prediction
Answer Options
As of 2 October 2026, 20:11 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Texas at a 17% chance, ahead of Iowa at 15% and Nebraska at 10%.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the U.S. Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Each candidate's percentage is determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that candidate receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in that election. For elections that include run-offs, ranked-choice voting or other multi-round formats, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, scheduled as of October 31, 2026 to be held in November 2026, including the results of any run-offs held after November 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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