Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This prediction is decided from arena.ai's Text Arena Overall leaderboard. The table is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026 in the Models view, with the Models filter applied and style control switched off (Adjustments: None). Only models from primarily Chinese companies count. A company qualifies when headquartered in China and mainly owned by, or operating within, China's technology ecosystem. Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Meituan, MiniMax, Moonshot, StepFun, Tencent, Xiaomi and Z.ai qualify, and other companies meeting that test also qualify. Models marked AutoEval at the check are excluded regardless of rank or score. Rank the remaining qualifying models by Rank; for equal ranks use Arena score, including unrounded values in the data beneath the table; if still tied, place the company whose name comes first alphabetically first. YES if the highest-ranked qualifying model belongs to ByteDance. If another company, including an otherwise qualifying company not named above, leads, NO. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check, use the first check after it returns; if it never returns, NO. Official arena.ai Text Arena Overall data decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
