Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Category 4 at a 72% chance, ahead of Category 5 at 21% and Category 3 at 1%.
Settles on the highest Saffir-Simpson category that the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) assigns to Simon (NHC designation EP202026) in any of its Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories for the storm; that answer wins and every other answer settles NO. The category follows the maximum sustained wind (1-minute average) that the advisory states: Category 1 covers 74-95 mph, Category 2 covers 96-110 mph, Category 3 covers 111-129 mph, Category 4 covers 130-156 mph and Category 5 starts at 157 mph, with both bounds of each range included. Wind speeds count as the advisory publishes them, without rounding, and advisories state winds in steps of 5 mph. Data from the post-storm best track, the Tropical Cyclone Report and advisories from any other agency do not count. The result settles once Simon dissipates. If Simon has not yet dissipated by 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET) on 21 October 2026, or the advisory data needed to establish its peak has not been issued by then, the question stays open for up to 2 more calendar days (ET), that is until the end of 23 October 2026 (ET), and then settles on the finalized advisory data issued up to that point. If that data is still unavailable when the extra period ends, or NHC has stopped publishing, the highest category assigned in any advisory published until then decides. For an obvious data error in an advisory, meaning a clerical or similar mistake and not a different reading by another source, the question can stay open until the end of the third day (ET) that follows the day the data first came out, to allow for corrections. A reanalysis or reclassification published after Simon dissipates does not change the result, and no revision published after it dissipates counts, while revisions published before it dissipates do. The NHC Public Advisories are the primary source; the category and the top wind speed they print decide. 'Category 1 or weaker' wins if the highest category in any NHC Public Advisory for Simon is Category 1 or lower, which includes a storm whose advisories never state winds of 74 mph or more.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
