Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 13:02 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 37% chance and No at 63%.
YES if a Republican finishes first, by any margin, in the 2026 US House general election for California's 28th congressional district, held on 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The lead is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the two candidates with the most votes, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. Democrat and Republican mean any candidate of that party on the general election ballot, also when both finalists come from the same party; independents count for neither party. A lead sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If two or more candidates share the most votes, a tie among Democrats and Republicans is given to the candidate whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically, counted as a Democratic win by under 5 points or as a Republican win; a tie between one such candidate and any other candidate is given to that party candidate in the same way; a tie only among other candidates, or a winner from neither party, means NO. The certifying authority's final count decides; if a recount starts before the count is official, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Certified results from the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reputable election reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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