Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Bill Huizenga (R) at a 53% chance and Sean McCann (D) at 49%.
YES is the party attached to the candidate who wins Michigan's MI-04 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm election held on 3 November 2026 (Eastern Time). Party identity follows the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are conclusively called by the deciding reports. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democrat or Republican affiliation is assigned to whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intended to caucus with at that time. The named candidates identify the two party options; YES goes to the winning party option and NO to the other. A broad agreement among reputable election reports determines the result; if ambiguous, the official U.S. Federal Election Commission result decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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