Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:01 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
For the 2026 Arkansas US Senate election, count every certified valid vote cast for either a candidate or a non-candidate option. Exclude blank ballots and invalid votes. If preferential or ranked-choice voting is used, count the first round only. YES if the total is at least 600,000 but fewer than 675,000; otherwise NO, except for the missing-result rule below. A shared endpoint belongs to the higher interval: exactly 600,000 is outside the lowest interval, and exactly 675,000 is outside the 600,000-to-below-675,000 interval. If the definitive election total remains unknown at 23:59 ET (New York time) on 31 March 2027, this prediction settles NO, as the lowest interval wins in that situation. Use the certified results published by Arkansas's state election authority. Overwhelming agreement among reliable reports may also establish the official total.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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