Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 55-60% at a 28% chance, ahead of Democrat 60-65% at 26% and Democrat 45-50% at 12%.
Choose the live band containing the official percentage-point spread between the top two finishers in the 3 November 2026 NY-08 House election. Compute each contender's share from valid ballots divided by the total valid ballot count, then take the absolute difference; a value exactly on an edge goes into the higher band. Democratic and Republican nominees occupy their party choices, while independents occupy neither. If a named nominee changes before election day, its party choice follows the replacement. A tie for first uses the smallest applicable band: with two listed contenders use the alphabetically earlier ballot surname; with one listed and one unlisted use the listed contender; with only unlisted leaders use Other. A party-labelled contender still uses the surname printed on the ballot. The state's certified count controls; a recount begun before certification leaves the result open until the recount is complete and official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, Other is YES. The certifying authority is primary and broadly corroborated journalism may supplement it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
