When will Washington drop its S-400 sanctions on Turkey?

As of 11 October 2026, 21:20 UTC, versus prices October 31 at a 8% chance and December 31 at 32%.

Category

economy

Closes

2026-12-31 23:59 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 21:20 UTC

On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey's Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions on Turkey (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey's Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Actions which direct partial or full sanctions relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend U.S. penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify. Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without the issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action. Once a qualifying sanctions-relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.