Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 16% chance and No at 84%.
YES if the overall count of valid votes recorded in the 2026 general election for Governor of California, held on 3 November 2026, is at least 12,500,000 but below 13,000,000; otherwise NO. All votes certified for candidates or for non-candidate options count, while blank or invalidated ballots do not; if a ranked-choice or preferential system is used, the first-round total counts. A total landing exactly on the line between two bands belongs to the higher band. If the result is still not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the total is treated as below 10.5 million, so only the lowest band is YES. Certified results from the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
