Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:19 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 50%+ at a >99% chance, ahead of 55%+ at 83% and 60%+ at 42%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if any model published by OpenAI reaches at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” For this market, “accuracy” refers only to the figure labeled “HLE Accuracy,” or to a clearly equivalent metric if the leaderboard’s format or terminology changes. Calibration Error and any other displayed metric will not be considered. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If that source becomes unavailable during the relevant period, this market will remain open to allow the data to become available again. If the source is still unavailable after the end of the timeframe, or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to “No.”
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
