Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This market resolves Yes if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026 (Central European local time); otherwise it resolves No. An announcement of Poilievre's resignation or removal before the end date immediately settles the market to Yes, regardless of when the departure actually takes effect. Resolution is based on official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @CPAC_TV
