Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:12 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 14% chance and No at 86%.
This prediction is about the election of the 60 members of El Salvador's Legislative Assembly, scheduled for 28 February 2027. Parties are ranked by the number of seats they win; a tie on seats is broken by total valid votes, more votes ranking higher, and any tie still left by alphabetical order of the party names. Only seats officially credited to a party itself count for it; seats credited to another party or electoral label do not, whatever cooperation, endorsements, coalition deals or later parliamentary groupings exist. When candidates of two or more parties run on one joint list, each seat that list wins is credited to the party of the elected candidate. YES if ARENA holds second place after this ranking. If any other party, listed or not, is second, NO. If the result is not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on 29 February 2028, NO. Consistent reliable reporting on the result decides; where it is unclear, only the official results of El Salvador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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