Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Result: Labour Wins, Greens Second

Sagal Abdi-Wali of the Labour Party won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election held on Thursday 8 October 2026, with 12,292 votes to 8,928 for the Green Party's Zack Polanski, a majority of 3,364. Camden Council announced the winner at 03:18 UK time on Friday 9 October 2026 and gave the turnout as 38.76%.

On Camden's figures, the answers that match on versus are Labour first by 10 to 15 points, Labour 45 to 50% and Green 30 to 35%. This guide was rewritten on 9 October 2026, after the declaration, and shows the working. It is for readers in Great Britain and is not advice.

The result in full

Camden Council's results page lists all fifteen candidates, and its announcement of 9 October names the winner. The shares below are our own calculation: each candidate's votes divided by the 27,211 valid votes, which is the sum of the fifteen totals.

• Sagal Abdi-Wali (Labour Party): 12,292, 45.2%
• Zack Polanski (The Green Party): 8,928, 32.8%
• Ewan Cameron (The Conservative Party Candidate): 1,922, 7.1%
• Peter Newman (Reform UK): 1,612, 5.9%
• Patrick Thomas Stillman (Liberal Democrats): 924, 3.4%
• Tyler Kurtis Johnson (Restore Britain): 692, 2.5%
• George Galloway (Workers Party): 314, 1.2%
• Briony Anne Lonbay Kapoor (Rejoin EU): 236, 0.9%
• Barmy Brunch (Official Monster Raving Loony Party): 87, 0.3%
• Helen Spiby-Vann (Christian Peoples Alliance): 63, 0.2%
• Clare Fischer (Climate Party): 51, 0.2%
• Ben Walker (UKIP: No to Illegal Immigration): 51, 0.2%
• Ketankumar Pipaliya (UK VOICE Safer and Stronger UK): 23, 0.1%
• Jonathan Silberman (Communist League): 9, 0.0%
• Tom Darwood (no description printed): 7, 0.0%

Camden also lists 108 rejected ballots: 43 for voting for more than one candidate and 65 unmarked or void for uncertainty. According to UK Parliament, the House of Commons uses first past the post, where the candidate with the most votes wins. Labour's 45.2% was under half of the valid votes and was enough.

Why the seat was vacant

UK Parliament's list of by-elections since the 2024 general election gives the reason as the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer on 1 September 2026. An MP has no right to resign, so one who wants to leave mid-Parliament applies for a formal title such as the Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds, which by law bars them from being an MP, as Parliament's glossary explains. Camden's notice of election was dated 8 September 2026 and nominations closed at 4pm on 15 September.

How it compares with 2024

On UK Parliament's result page for the general election of 4 July 2024, Sir Keir Starmer (Labour) won with 18,884 votes, a 48.9% share, ahead of an independent candidate on 18.9% and the Green Party on 4,030 votes, 10.4%. The majority was 11,572 votes (30.0 points on our calculation) on a turnout of 54.1%, though Camden's own page for 2024 gives 54.46%.

Against that, Labour's share is down 3.7 points to 45.2% and the Green share is up 22.4 points to 32.8%. The majority is 3,364 votes, 12.4 points, and the turnout is 38.76%. The Conservative candidate took 7.1% (7.2% in 2024), Reform UK 5.9% (6.1%) and the Liberal Democrats 3.4% (5.8%). A by-election is a different contest from a general election, so treat the comparison as context, not a forecast.

How the three versus predictions settle

All three closed to trading at 23:59 UTC on 8 October (00:59 UK time on 9 October), before the result was declared. Each works from valid votes. The rules take the result from reliable reporting and let Camden Council's official result decide where reports are unclear. The matching answer settles at 100p and every other answer at 0p (what market resolution means explains the idea).

• Who wins Holborn & St Pancras, and by how much? uses the gap between the shares of the first and second candidates, and a Labour band is right only if Labour's candidate comes first. Labour's 45.17% minus the Green Party's 32.81% is 12.36 points, so Labour first by 10 to 15 points matches. A gap exactly on a band line would go to the higher band.
• What share will Labour take in Holborn & St Pancras? asks for the band holding Labour's share of valid votes. 12,292 divided by 27,211 is 45.17%, in the 45 to 50% band. That is 0.17 points, about 47 votes, above the 45% line, and the rules count valid votes only, so Camden's 108 rejected ballots are not in the base.
• What share will the Greens take in Holborn & St Pancras? asks the same for the Green Party. 8,928 divided by 27,211 is 32.81%, in the 30 to 35% band.

What the prices showed before the count

At 07:26 UK time on 7 October 2026, the day before the vote, the answers that now match were priced at 26p (Labour first by 10 to 15 points), 30p (Labour 45 to 50%) and 23p (Green 30 to 35%), in each case the second-highest price in its prediction. The highest were Labour first by 15 points or more at 39p, Labour 40 to 45% at 37p and Green 25 to 30% at 24p. A price is the market's estimate of a chance at one moment, not a promise, and prices of separate answers do not have to add up to 100p.

What happens next

No further result is awaited: Camden's declaration is the official result these predictions use. Camden's announcement gives no date for the new MP taking their seat in the House of Commons.

Before you trade

You can lose the whole amount you put into a position: an answer that does not match the result settles at 0p. versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143, which you can check on its public register. Every market names the source that settles it before you trade, and a 2% transaction fee is added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm. Safer Play tools include deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP; the safer play page explains each one, and how it works follows one position from opening to settlement. Only put in what you are comfortable losing.

Frequently asked questions

Who won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Sagal Abdi-Wali of the Labour Party, with 12,292 votes, according to Camden Council's results page. Camden's newsroom announced the winner at 03:18 UK time on 9 October 2026. The Green Party's Zack Polanski came second with 8,928.

What was the turnout in Holborn and St Pancras?

38.76%, according to Camden Council. UK Parliament's result page gives 54.1% for the 2024 general election in the seat, and Camden's own page for 2024 gives 54.46%.

What was the majority?

3,364 votes, which is 12.4 points of the 27,211 valid votes, on our calculation from Camden's table.

Where is the official result?

On Camden Council's results page, which lists every candidate's votes and the 108 rejected ballots.

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